April 27, 2021
Who should be the NBA Most Valuable Player? The answer is not simple. And the answer is subject to change. With most teams still having 10-12 games left on their regular season schedule, things could still change. Because we are curious we spent too much time digging into the facts. Being data informed is the responsible way to vote on matters such as the NBA Most Valuable Player award.
What factors should matter when considering MVP? The total regular season body of work is a good place to start. After a "total production" measurement, which usually leans towards offensive statistics, we believe the player's defensive value must also be measured. Finally, we ask, is his team winning or not? Our method ranks the current top five for MVP as... 1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, 2. Nikola Jokic, 3. Stephen Curry, 4. Luka Doncic, 5. Zion Williamson. For the record, the Las Vegas odds for MVP have a top-five of... 1. Jokic, 2. Embiid, 3. Curry, 4. Giannis, 5. Harden.
Combine our method with the Vegas odds and we have seven realistic contenders for MVP. The chart below is for quick easy comparisons.
Player |
Points |
Rebs. |
Assists |
Steals |
Blocks |
3-PT FGM |
DEFRTG Diff. |
Total Production |
Wins |
Antetokounmpo |
1452 |
580 |
306 |
60 |
65 |
55 |
3.3 |
1261 |
32 |
Jokic |
1574 |
653 |
524 |
83 |
39 |
81 |
-1.3 |
1514 |
39 |
Curry |
1657 |
297 |
308 |
62 |
7 |
273 |
-.3 |
1274 |
30 |
Doncic |
1537 |
431 |
473 |
54 |
34 |
161 |
-.6 |
1207 |
32 |
Williamson |
1484 |
401 |
199 |
49 |
36 |
9 |
.3 |
1245 |
25 |
Embiid |
1229 |
455 |
129 |
41 |
58 |
48 |
.6 |
991 |
30 |
Harden |
1060 |
336 |
457 |
50 |
29 |
117 |
-.9 |
954 |
29 |
Bigger Table (below)
Player |
team |
Hoop Obsesssion Calculation (HOC) |
Total Prod. Points |
DEFRTG Diff. |
Defrtg Points |
Wins |
Win Points |
Score |
Giannis |
MIL |
0.737 |
63 |
3.3 |
17.4 |
32 |
12.4 |
92.8 |
Jokic |
DEN |
0.716 |
65 |
-1.3 |
3.4 |
39 |
14.4 |
82.8 |
Curry, Steph |
GSW |
0.705 |
64 |
-0.3 |
7.2 |
30 |
11 |
82.2 |
Doncic |
DAL |
0.636 |
61 |
-0.6 |
6.2 |
32 |
12.2 |
79.4 |
Zion |
NOP |
0.7 |
62 |
0.3 |
8.4 |
25 |
8.4 |
78.8 |
Randle |
NYK |
0.487 |
56 |
0.6 |
9.4 |
33 |
12.8 |
78.2 |
Lillard |
POR |
0.588 |
60 |
-0.7 |
5.8 |
29 |
10.4 |
76.2 |
Kawhi |
LAC |
0.628 |
53 |
0.1 |
8.2 |
32 |
12 |
73.2 |
Gobert |
UTA |
0.497 |
38 |
6 |
19.6 |
44 |
15 |
72.6 |
Fox |
SAC |
0.545 |
57 |
-0.1 |
7.6 |
24 |
7.8 |
72.4 |
Embiid |
PHI |
0.754 |
52 |
0.6 |
9.2 |
30 |
10.8 |
72 |
Adebayo |
MIA |
0.539 |
47 |
1.8 |
14.4 |
27 |
9.4 |
70.8 |
Chris Paul |
PHX |
0.496 |
42 |
1.6 |
14 |
42 |
14.8 |
70.8 |
Tatum |
BOS |
0.506 |
51 |
0.5 |
9 |
30 |
10.6 |
70.6 |
Young, Trae |
ATL |
0.57 |
54 |
-0.7 |
5.6 |
29 |
10.2 |
69.8 |
Beal |
WAS |
0.624 |
59 |
-2.6 |
0.4 |
26 |
8.8 |
68.2 |
Irving |
BKN |
0.625 |
50 |
-0.9 |
4.8 |
31 |
11.6 |
66.4 |
Booker |
PHX |
0.524 |
49 |
-1.6 |
2 |
41 |
14.6 |
65.6 |
Westbrook |
WAS |
0.485 |
41 |
3.1 |
16.8 |
23 |
7.4 |
65.2 |
Vucevic |
CHI |
0.547 |
58 |
-3.2 |
|
21 |
6.8 |
64.8 |
LaVine |
CHI |
0.581 |
55 |
-1.8 |
1.8 |
22 |
7.2 |
64 |
Butler |
MIA |
0.595 |
37 |
3.8 |
18 |
26 |
8.6 |
63.6 |
Ingram |
NOP |
0.514 |
48 |
-0.6 |
6 |
25 |
8.2 |
62.2 |
J Brown |
BOS |
0.51 |
44 |
0 |
8 |
28 |
10 |
62 |
George |
LAC |
0.549 |
32 |
3.3 |
17 |
34 |
13 |
62 |
James, LeBron |
LAL |
0.622 |
34 |
3.3 |
17.2 |
28 |
9.8 |
61 |
Mitchell, D |
UTA |
0.535 |
45 |
-1.9 |
1.4 |
39 |
14.2 |
60.6 |
Harden |
BKN |
0.612 |
46 |
-0.9 |
4.6 |
27 |
9.2 |
59.8 |
Middleton |
MIL |
0.473 |
40 |
-0.8 |
5.2 |
37 |
14 |
59.2 |
Sabonis |
IND |
0.491 |
43 |
-0.4 |
6.8 |
24 |
7.6 |
57.4 |
Capela |
ATL |
0.494 |
29 |
4.5 |
18.4 |
28 |
9.6 |
57 |
How we arrive at "total production". We multiplied minutes played by HOC. (What the heck is HOC?). ...After a lifetime of studying the NBA and various efficiency measurements, we tweaked (quite significantly) our trusted "EFR" rating into a new formula we call the Hoop Obsession Calculation (HOC). The formula is a per-minute measure of efficiency adjusted for what we believe really matters in a boxscore (for example, less emphasis on rebounding, more emphasis on shooting accuracy). This proprietary math is based on thousands of hours of basketball observation in a lifetime dedicated, in part, to studying what affects winning and losing.
Top 50 in HOC x Mins. Played (Total Production)
Player |
Age |
Tm |
Total |
HOC |
Nikola Jokic |
25 |
DEN |
1514.5 |
0.716 |
Stephen Curry |
32 |
GSW |
1274.9 |
0.705 |
Giannis Antetokounmpo |
26 |
MIL |
1261.7 |
0.737 |
Zion Williamson |
20 |
NOP |
1245.4 |
0.687 |
Luka Doncic |
21 |
DAL |
1207.3 |
0.636 |
Damian Lillard |
30 |
POR |
1162.2 |
0.588 |
Bradley Beal |
27 |
WAS |
1130.5 |
0.624 |
Nikola Vucevic |
30 |
TOT |
1116.7 |
0.547 |
De'Aaron Fox |
23 |
SAC |
1109.4 |
0.545 |
Julius Randle |
26 |
NYK |
1097.2 |
0.487 |
Zach LaVine |
25 |
CHI |
1085.0 |
0.581 |
Trae Young |
22 |
ATL |
1054.6 |
0.570 |
Kawhi Leonard |
29 |
LAC |
993.0 |
0.628 |
Joel Embiid |
26 |
PHI |
991.9 |
0.754 |
Jayson Tatum |
22 |
BOS |
991.1 |
0.506 |
Kyrie Irving |
28 |
BRK |
991.0 |
0.625 |
Devin Booker |
24 |
PHO |
986.9 |
0.524 |
Brandon Ingram |
23 |
NOP |
977.4 |
0.514 |
Bam Adebayo |
23 |
MIA |
973.8 |
0.539 |
James Harden |
31 |
TOT |
954.0 |
0.612 |
Donovan Mitchell |
24 |
UTA |
947.2 |
0.535 |
Jaylen Brown |
24 |
BOS |
941.2 |
0.510 |
Domantas Sabonis |
24 |
IND |
929.8 |
0.491 |
Chris Paul |
35 |
PHO |
928.4 |
0.496 |
Russell Westbrook |
32 |
WAS |
915.8 |
0.485 |
DeMar DeRozan |
31 |
SAS |
912.8 |
0.538 |
Khris Middleton |
29 |
MIL |
912.3 |
0.473 |
Rudy Gobert |
28 |
UTA |
911.1 |
0.497 |
Jimmy Butler |
31 |
MIA |
886.2 |
0.595 |
Malcolm Brogdon |
28 |
IND |
872.4 |
0.462 |
Terry Rozier |
26 |
CHO |
871.1 |
0.449 |
LeBron James |
36 |
LAL |
863.1 |
0.622 |
Collin Sexton |
22 |
CLE |
853.7 |
0.479 |
Paul George |
30 |
LAC |
850.6 |
0.549 |
Deandre Ayton |
22 |
PHO |
846.7 |
0.460 |
Tobias Harris |
28 |
PHI |
843.8 |
0.500 |
Clint Capela |
26 |
ATL |
800.5 |
0.494 |
Norman Powell |
27 |
TOT |
792.8 |
0.434 |
Karl-Anthony Towns |
25 |
MIN |
778.5 |
0.582 |
Jamal Murray |
23 |
DEN |
773.2 |
0.454 |
Jerami Grant |
26 |
DET |
772.7 |
0.435 |
Jonas Valanciunas |
28 |
MEM |
772.3 |
0.539 |
Andrew Wiggins |
25 |
GSW |
769.3 |
0.382 |
Pascal Siakam |
26 |
TOR |
765.2 |
0.446 |
Harrison Barnes |
28 |
SAC |
761.7 |
0.366 |
John Collins |
23 |
ATL |
755.9 |
0.485 |
Ja Morant |
21 |
MEM |
751.7 |
0.458 |
Jrue Holiday |
30 |
MIL |
736.4 |
0.481 |
Michael Porter Jr. |
22 |
DEN |
735.8 |
0.473 |
As mentioned above, defense needs to be a part of the equation. We can see within each team, which players are above or below their team's DEFENSIVE RATING. We call this "defensive differential". This is a stat based on opponents scoring per 100 possessions while a given player is in the game. Because successful NBA defense is so tied to the entire five-man rotation, we think any individual defensive rating should be considered no more than 20% (one of five) of any equation. We also strongly feel that looking at individual DEFRTG's across different teams is fruitless. Certainly, every teammate of Rudy Gobert will have a better DEFRTG, than say, a team that plays Nemanja Bjelica as a Center.
Positive Defensive Differentials of those in Top 50 in Total Production.
Player |
team |
DEFRTG Diff. |
Gobert |
UTA |
6 |
Capela |
ATL |
4.5 |
M Turner |
IND |
3.5 |
Giannis |
MIL |
3.3 |
James, LeBron |
LAL |
3.3 |
George |
LAC |
3.3 |
Westbrook |
WAS |
3.1 |
Anunoby |
TOR |
3.1 |
CJ Mc |
POR |
2.7 |
Durant |
BKN |
2.5 |
Joe Harris |
BKN |
2.5 |
Harrell |
LAL |
2.2 |
Van Vleet |
TOR |
1.9 |
Adebayo |
MIA |
1.8 |
Valanciunas |
MEM
|
1.7 |
CP 3 |
PHX |
1.6 |
Jrue |
MIL |
1.6 |
Barnes |
SAC |
1.6 |
D Murray |
SAS |
1.5 |
Holmes |
SAC |
1.4 |
Hayward |
CHA |
1.4 |
Boucher |
TOR |
1.3 |
C Wood |
HOU |
1.3 |
Murray, J |
DEN |
1.2 |
Siakam |
TOR |
1.2 |
J Grant |
DET |
1 |
Brogdon |
IND |
0.9 |
Young, Thad |
CHI |
0.8 |
Simmons, B |
PHI |
0.8 |
Kanter |
POR |
0.8 |
Ibaka |
LAC |
0.8 |
White, Coby |
CHI |
0.8 |
Julius Randle |
NYK |
0.6 |
Embiid |
PHI |
0.6 |
Tatum |
BOS |
0.5 |
T Harris |
PHI |
0.5 |
John Collins |
ATL |
0.5 |
Zion |
NOP |
0.3 |
Kawhi |
LAC |
0.1 |
Finally, using our totals we list the three All-NBA teams as we would vote for them today (as of 04/27/21).
All-NBA First Team: Stephen Curry, Luka Doncic, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Nikola Jokic.
All-NBA Second Team: Damian Lillard, Bradley Beal, Jayson Tatum, Zion Williamson, Rudy Gobert.
All-NBA Third Team: Chris Paul, Trae Young, Jimmy Butler, Julius Randle, Joel Embiid.
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