The Too Early Hoop Obsession NBA Season Preview - By Bobby Gerould
September 26, 2025.
2025–26 NBA Preview
This is part two of our HoopObsession too early NBA preview. Each offseason, as part of our effort to reacquaint ourselves with the league landscape, we dive into building spreadsheets and depth charts for the upcoming season. Without fail, a few intriguing story-lines and roster details emerge, and sharing those insights is the purpose of this too-early preview.
In this piece, you’ll notice we refer to “main five” and “second five.” This terminology reflects the way we analyze rosters. Traditional “starting five” designations often don’t align with reality. Many times, the players who open games aren’t the ones logging the most minutes over an 82-game season. By “main five,” we mean the group we project to play the highest total minutes on a roster.
It’s important to emphasize that this remains a too-early preview. There is still ample time for teams to rise or fall in our rankings as the offseason continues to unfold.
Teams 15 to 1.
#15 Toronto Raptors
After a 30–52 campaign that kept them out of the postseason for the second straight year, the Toronto Raptors enter 2025–26 aiming to reestablish themselves as a Playoffs team. Under head coach Darko Rajakovic, the Raptors quietly showed progress down the stretch last season, going 22–21 over their final 43 games.
The franchise also underwent a major front-office change, as Masai Ujiri stepped away from his role as team president. Longtime GM Bobby Webster (with the club since 2013) now takes the reins, tasked with guiding a young but intriguing roster into a new era.
Toronto’s projected starting five has the potential to be one of the most balanced in the East, if the pieces mesh. Brandon Ingram, acquired from New Orleans but sidelined last season, could be the X-factor. His ability to blend with Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes, and Jakob Poeltl will determine whether this group can push toward the upper tier of the conference. Barrett, just 25, looks ready to make a leap, and his versatile two-way game still feels underrated.
The concern comes when Rajakovic turns to his bench. Toronto’s second unit ranks near the bottom of the league in experience, with Jamal Shead and Jakobe Walter entering their sophomore seasons, Gradey Dick in year three, and rookie Collin Murray-Boyles getting his first taste of NBA competition. Ochai Agbaji, at 25, is the elder statesman of the group. The upside is obvious, but the learning curve will be steep.
One bright spot is the addition of Murray-Boyles, whom Toronto selected in the draft. A high-motor defender with great instincts, he has the tools to earn minutes early and carve out a role in what could otherwise be a thin rotation.
Las Vegas projects: 37.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 41 wins.
#14 Dallas Mavericks
Cooper Flagg, the number one pick in the 2025 NBA Draft will add depth to an already talented front-line in Dallas. Hopefully the Mavs will not try to run him as a Point Guard, as they did in Las Vegas Summer League. Flagg was exceptional in his freshman year at Duke. He led the NCAA in boxscore plus/minus, averaging 19.2 points (led ACC), 7.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists per game.
Anthony Davis (photo above) played in nine games for Dallas last season after the trade that sent out Luka Doncic, and brought in Davis. He doesn’t like to play Center but guess what A.D.? Your team is going to need you to play Center in order to maximize the roster. In that scenario, we view Dallas’ main five as D’Angelo Russell, Max Christie, Flagg, P.J. Washington, and Davis.
Kyrie Irving suffered a torn ACL in March, and he is expected to miss more than half of the season. He may play enough to still end up among the top ten in total minutes on the team. The rest of the Mavs second-five should include Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, Dereck Lively, and Daniel Gafford. Caleb Martin, Jaden Hardy and Dante Exum will probably get their fair share of minutes as well.
Having a trio of really good BIGs is uncommon in today’s NBA. We like the Dallas depth as the best in the NBA, particularly when it comes to BIGs. Davis, Lively, and Gafford are all efficient on offense. Lively has emerged as one of the best defensive Centers in the game. He is expected to be ready for the start of training camp after undergoing surgery for bone spurs in his right foot.
One sleeper to keep an eye on is deep-bench guard Brandon Williams. He flourished late last season for the Mavs. In 33 games for Dallas, Williams shot 40% from three-point range, and he ranked tenth among shooting guards in our Hoop Obsession Calculation (HOC). On a $2.2 million dollar contract, Williams may emerge as one of the best values in the league.
Las Vegas projects: 39.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 43 wins.
#13 San Antonio Spurs
After six years on the outside looking in, the Spurs appear poised to rejoin the Playoffs picture in 2025–26. The key question: can they defend at a high enough level to complement their intriguing offensive core? With De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell, Harrison Barnes, and Victor Wembanyama (photo above) logging the bulk of the minutes, San Antonio has a lineup that looks both balanced and dangerous. Wembanyama’s unique blend of size, skill, and shot-making gives the Spurs a ceiling that stretches far beyond this No. 13 ranking.
Castle enters his second year with momentum after winning the 2024–25 Rookie of the Year award, but he still has room to grow. His 28% three-point shooting as a rookie must improve if the Spurs want to fully unlock the spacing and versatility of their main unit.
The franchise also turns the page with Mitch Johnson officially taking over as head coach. Johnson already guided the team through 77 games last season after Gregg Popovich’s mild stroke, giving San Antonio a sense of continuity despite the transition.
Depth-wise, the Spurs brought in Luke Kornet, a steady backup big from Boston, while No. 2 overall pick Dylan Harper should slot immediately into the second unit. That group also features Julian Champagnie, Keldon Johnson, and Jeremy Sochan, with veterans Kelly Olynyk and rookie Carter Bryant (No. 14 pick) battling for rotation minutes. Bryant had a rough Summer League, shooting just 27.3% from the field with more turnovers than assists.
San Antonio finished 34–48 a year ago, but with Fox’s arrival, Castle’s growth, and Wembanyama’s inevitable leap toward super-stardom, a nine-to-ten game improvement feels well within reach.
Las Vegas projects: 43.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 43 wins.#12 Atlanta Hawks
The main-five for the Hawks are: Trae Young (photo below), Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Jalen Johnson, and Onyeka Okongwu. Young led the NBA in assists per game last season (11.6 per game). Having Johnson back healthy after he suffered a torn labrum in late January, will certainly help the rebounding and defense for the Quin Snyder coached Hawks. Clint Capela is gone so Okongwu should be the main man in the middle.
Daniels made a big leap last season as a menace on defense. He and Risacher, the first pick in the 2024 NBA Draft should only continue to ascend.
The Hawks won 40 games last season, and this time around they come armed with more weapons. Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kennard, and Nickel Alexander-Walker should give Atlanta enough depth to increase their win total. How much Porzingis will play is always in question. In the last two seasons combined he’s played in 99 of 164 games (60%).
It seems probable that Vit Krejci will be in the rotation. The Hawks drafted Asa Newell (age 19) with the 23rd pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. The Hawks obtained the 23rd pick after trading down from the 13th pick with the New Orleans Pelicans (the Pels picked Derik Queen). Newell played college basketball at the University of Georgia and is an Atlanta native. The Hawks also acquired a 2026 first-round pick in the trade with the Pelicans.
I like the Hawks in the sense that they have a chance to win while still having plenty of room for growth.
Las Vegas projects: 46.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 46 wins.#11 Memphis Grizzlies
The Memphis Grizzlies enter 2025–26 with a reshaped roster and renewed optimism. The franchise made headlines by trading Desmond Bane to the Orlando Magic in exchange for draft capital, Cole Anthony, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Anthony was quickly bought out, but Memphis retained Caldwell-Pope to bolster its perimeter defense and veteran leadership.
The Grizzlies’ confidence stems primarily from the return of Ja Morant (photo below), who was limited to just 50 games last season. A healthy Morant, paired with Jaren Jackson Jr., gives Memphis one of the premier duos in the league. The organization reinforced that commitment by extending Jackson on July 1 to a reported five-year, $240 million deal, cementing him as a franchise cornerstone. Projected to round out the starting unit are Jaylen Wells, Santi Aldama, and second-year center Zach Edey.
Depth looks solid as well. Caldwell-Pope joins Scotty Pippen Jr., Ty Jerome, G.G. Jackson, and Brandon Clarke to form a reliable second unit. Jerome, in particular, profiles as a potential breakout piece. Secured on a three-year, $28 million contract, he has the talent to start on several teams across the league, making his acquisition a value move for Memphis. Additional contributors such as Cam Spencer, Vince Williams Jr., and Jock Landale provide further rotation flexibility.
The front office is also high on rookie Cedric Coward, drafted despite a shortened 2024–25 season at Washington State due to shoulder surgery. Prior to the injury, Coward showcased two-way potential with averages of 17.7 points, 7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, while shooting 40% from three and nearly 84% from the line. At 6'5" with a 7'2" wingspan, a 38.5" vertical, and disruptive defensive instincts, Coward projects as a versatile wing stopper with upside as a floor spacer.
On the sidelines, Tuomas Iisalo continues in his role as Head Coach after taking over last season. The 43-year-old brings a tactical edge and modern offensive approach, while lead assistant Ryan Saunders adds valuable experience to the bench.
Las Vegas projects: 40.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 47wins.#10 Los Angeles Lakers
The “main-five” for the Lakers rank fourth on our spreadsheet. Unfortunately for the Lakers, their “second-five” ranks 28th. The strength of the Lakers is obviously Luka Doncic (photo below), and LeBron James but Austin Reaves, Rui Hachimura, and DeAndre Ayton also provide talent in their own right.
Much has been made already about the physical conditioning of Doncic. In Summer trim, he looked lighter and leaner. Can he have the discipline to be fit in February? If the Lakers do get the best version of Luka, look out. He can be a MVP candidate.
LeBron will turn 40 years-old in December. He can still be great in spurts but his overall net rating fell into negative territory last season. He finished at -1.3. That’s the second time in the last four seasons, James has had a negative net rating. The most notable change in his performance is in trips to the free throw line which declined to a career-low per-minute for him in 2024-25.
The addition of Ayton is interesting to us. Can he be dependable? We feel like he would be a good reserve Center but as a starter he is in the lowest tier. Ayton is really an old-school center. He is a career 23% three-point shooter so Lakers fans should not expect him to stretch out the three point line.
The bench crew in the rotation for J.J. Redick in his second year as Head Coach, figures to be Marcus Smart, Gabe Vincent, Dalton Knecht, Jake LaRavia, and Jaxson Hayes. Jared Vanderbilt and Adou Thiero, a rookie second round pick (36th overall), might also get some rotational burn.
The Lakers will be good but they could be much better if they could acquire some more help off the bench.
Las Vegas projects: 47.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 47 wins.#9 Golden State Warriors
Few projections carry more volatility than Golden State’s entering 2025–26. The roster is not yet finalized, as Jonathan Kuminga and the organization remain at a standstill on contract terms. Until that resolution, the expected signing of Al Horford is on hold. Additional dominoes, such as potential deals for De’Anthony Melton or Gary Payton II, are also tied to the outcome.
What we do know: after acquiring Jimmy Butler on February 8, the Warriors looked like contenders again. They closed the season 23–8 (.742) over their final 31 games, the third-best record in the league during that stretch, while posting the NBA’s top defensive rating.
Assuming Kuminga returns, Golden State’s starting unit projects as Stephen Curry (photo above), Brandin Podziemski, Butler, Kuminga, and Draymond Green. Curry remains an elite offensive engine, finishing third in Hoop Obsession’s efficiency metric among point guards last season, trailing only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Cade Cunningham. Butler, even at 35, is still one of the most reliable two-way wings in basketball.
The key concern is perimeter spacing. Outside of Curry and Podziemski, this lineup leans heavily on below-average shooters. Green (32.5%), Kuminga (30.5%), and Butler (30.8%) all struggled from deep last season, raising fair questions about whether a roster built around three low-percentage shooters can maximize its offensive ceiling in the modern game.
Depth has a different complexion without Kevon Looney, whose grit and rebounding were staples of Golden State’s identity. Instead, rotation minutes are likely to go to Buddy Hield, Moses Moody, Quinten Post, Horford, and Trayce Jackson-Davis, with Gui Santos pushing for a role. Rookies Alex Toohey and Will Richard, both second-round picks, provide developmental upside.
Ultimately, Golden State’s outlook hinges on Kuminga’s contract resolution and whether Butler’s late-season impact translates into a full campaign. If those chips fall into place, the Warriors have the defensive chops and veteran experience to push higher than this ranking suggests.
Vegas projects: 45.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 49 wins.#8 Detroit Pistons
The Pistons should be taken very seriously this season after making the NBA Playoffs for the first time since 2019. J.B. Bickerstaff led the Pistons to a 44-38 record. They have a top tier main-five that includes Cade Cunningham (photo below), Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Tobias Harris, and Jalen Duren. Cunningham is the real deal. He has improved his scoring average every season of his career. Last season, Cunningham averaged 26.1 points per game. It has taken him some time to get there but as he heads into year five we wonder how much he can continue to ascend.
Ivey is expected to return from a broken fibula in his left leg that he suffered on January 1, 2025. At the time of the injury, Ivey was having the best season of his career.
Ausar Thompson is a weapon for the Pistons. He ranked second in steals per minute in 2024-25. With Tim Hardaway Jr., and Dennis Schroder gone and Malik Beasley in limbo, Thompson may be expected to play much more than the 22.5 minutes he averaged last season.
Caris LeVert and Duncan Robinson will join Pistons mainstays, Isaiah Stewart, Marcus Sasser, and second-year wing Ron Holland in the Detroit rotation. Paul Reed and Javonte Green (free agent addition) could also see playing time. Simone Fontecchio is now in Miami.
The Pistons drafted Chaz Lanier, a sharp shooting specialist, with the 37th pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Las Vegas projects: 45.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 49 wins.#7 Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets enter 2025–26 with a reshaped core following the trade that sent Michael Porter Jr. to Brooklyn. In his place comes Cam Johnson, whose shooting and decision-making appear tailor-made to slot alongside Nikola Jokic. With Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Johnson, Aaron Gordon, and Jokic, Denver has a starting five that projects as one of the league’s most efficient offensive units.
Jokic, the three-time MVP and Hoop Obsession’s top-ranked player in overall efficiency, remains the centerpiece. Johnson's strengths; sharp ball movement (1.96-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio), reliable free-throw shooting, and a willingness to fit within an offensive system, could help Denver’s attack operate with even greater fluidity.
Denver also retooled its bench with some familiar and proven pieces. Bruce Brown returns after two seasons away, bringing back the defensive versatility and play making that helped power the Nuggets’ 2023 championship run. Tim Hardaway Jr. and Jonas Valanciunas add scoring and veteran depth, while Peyton Watson and Julian Strawther are expected to take on larger roles. Rookie big man DaRon Holmes, who missed last season due to an Achilles injury suffered in Summer League, is another name to track.
The biggest question for Denver is whether its defense can rise to the challenge. The Nuggets ranked just 21st in defensive rating a season ago, a number that simply won’t hold up for a team with championship aspirations. If they can climb back toward league-average on that end, their offensive firepower gives them every chance to contend in a crowded Western Conference.
Vegas projects: 53.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 51 wins.
#6 New York Knicks
New York made a bold move to acquire Karl Anthony Towns (photo above) before the start of last season. The results were good. While the Knicks didn’t win the Eastern Conference Finals, they did prove that they are ready to be a contender. They finished 51-31 last regular season. Towns completed the season as the fifth ranked Center in Hoop Obsession Calculation (HOC).
Knicks management decided Tom Thibodeau had taken the club as far as he could so they fired him and replaced with with Mike Brown. Brown inherits a main-five that is among the ten best in the NBA. The Knicks have top-tier talent at Point Guard with Jalen Brunson. He finished ranked tied for fourth in PG HOC. Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, OG Anunoby, and KAT complete the core.
The second-five was bolstered by acquisitions Jordan Clarkson, and Guerschon Yabusele. Malcolm Brogdan could also play a significant role if he can stay healthy. The 32 year-old appeared in just 24 games last season. Deuce McBride, and Mitchell Robinson are rotational mainstays. Clarkson is a weapon on offense that can put points on the board in a variety of ways. He will be a top-tier reserve that can really help New York.
Mohamed Diawara was added via the NBA Draft with the 51st pick in round two.
The Knicks spent a long time playing for “Thibs”. He played the players heavy minutes which some outside critics decried. We believe Thibodeau was smart to maximize his roster by playing his best guys the most minutes. Players want to play.
How Brown conducts the rotation will be worth monitoring. He is known to have soft spots for defensive minded guys regardless of their lack of efficiency on offense (KZ Okpala, Colby Jones come to mind). How a reduction in minutes for stars, and some of the Mike Brown-isms (quick timeouts) that come with him as a Head Coach, are received by the core players will be interesting.
Vegas projects: 53.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 51 wins.
#5 L.A. Clippers
The Clippers enter 2025–26 under a cloud of uncertainty, with the NBA investigating potential salary-cap circumvention related to Kawhi Leonard’s contract. Whether that inquiry will impact this season remains unclear, but on the court, Los Angeles looks as formidable as ever.
Last year, the Clippers’ identity shifted dramatically on the defensive end. They finished third in the league in defensive rating and first in defensive rebounding percentage, with Ivica Zubac (photo above) anchoring the interior. Zubac continues to be one of the NBA’s most underrated centers. He quietly ranked 11th in Hoop Obsession’s efficiency metric among fives in 2024–25. Pair him with James Harden’s play making and Leonard’s two-way dominance, and the foundation for a 50-win team is clear.
The front office didn’t stop there, however. The Clippers adjusted around their stars by bringing in Bradley Beal, John Collins, Brook Lopez, and Chris Paul. Norman Powell is gone, but the new additions add versatility, depth, and a wealth of postseason experience.
Leonard’s availability remains the wild card. He suited up for just 37 games last season, and history suggests the Clippers will continue to manage his workload carefully. That could shift him into more of a second-unit role in terms of total minutes across the regular season.
Our projected main-five: Harden, Beal, Derrick Jones Jr., Collins, and Zubac. The second-five should be really good, featuring Paul, Kris Dunn, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Leonard, and Lopez, with veteran Nicolas Batum still capable of contributing in key spots.
Los Angeles also added Yanic Konan Niederhauser, the final pick of the first round in the 2025 NBA Draft, giving them another young piece to develop.
With depth, star power, and a top-three defense already in place, the Clippers have the look of a contender, provided Leonard stays on the floor and the league’s investigation doesn’t derail their plans.
Vegas projects: 48.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 53 wins.#4 Houston Rockets
The Rockets took a major step forward last season, finishing 52–30, but an early Playoffs exit convinced management that more firepower was needed. Their response was bold: Houston traded Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, the draft rights to Khaman Maluach, and multiple second-round picks to Phoenix in exchange for Kevin Durant. In free agency, they added veteran front-court depth with Clint Capela and Dorian Finney-Smith.
Durant is no longer the model of peak efficiency, but he remains an elite scorer and represents a clear upgrade over Green’s volume-heavy shot selection. K.D.'s presence should lift Houston’s overall offensive efficiency and field-goal percentage.
Defensively, the Rockets already had a strong foundation, and this roster is built to be even better. We project Houston’s starting five to rank as the fourth-best defensive unit in the league, with their second group profiling as the second-best defensive “bench unit” in the NBA.
Amen Thompson (photo above), Durant, Jabari Smith Jr., and Alperen Sengun blend scoring, size, and versatility. Thompson, in particular, is emerging as one of the league’s premier wing defenders. His anticipation and athleticism allow him to disrupt passing lanes and ignite transition play. The starting lineup did take a hit when Fred VanVleet went down with a torn ACL in a preseason workout. However, VanVleet had slipped in efficiency last season and his injury might not be as big a deal as some are making it out to be. Aaron Holiday was only slightly less efficient but Holiday is a far superior defender.
Depth may be Houston’s biggest asset. Their projected second unit, Reed Sheppard, Josh Okogie, Finney-Smith, Tari Eason, and Capela, is loaded with defensive stoppers who will make life miserable for opposing benches. Steven Adams could also earn meaningful minutes, giving the Rockets one of the deepest rotations in basketball.
The one glaring weakness: ball movement. Houston ranked dead last in assist percentage last season, and if they want to take the leap from Playoffs team to true contender, they must become more connected offensively. With Durant’s shot-making, Sengun’s play-making from the post, and Thompson’s improving feel, the tools are there for progress.
Las Vegas projects: 54.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 53 wins#3 Orlando Magic
If this one is catching you off-guard, we can only say that you just cannot underestimate the efficiency gain a team gets when it swaps out Kentavious Caldwell-Pope for Desmond Bane. That’s what went down in Orlando in the off-season. They gained the fourth ranked two-guard (in HOC) while subtracting the 101st rated SG. Sure, the team defense might take a hit, as KCP is the superior defender. However, the GAIN in offense is as big as the difference between night and day.
The main-five for the Magic should include: Jalen Suggs, Bane, Franz Wagner, Wendell Carter Jr., and Paolo Banchero. That is easily a top-ten core. Banchero and Franz Wagner are both All-Star caliber players despite some struggles with three-point shooting accuracy. Franz scored 24.2 points per game last season, while Banchero averaged 25.9 ppg.
The second-five is also good (we rank the unit fourth) with Tyus Jones, Anthony Black, Tristan DaSilva, Moritz Wagner (when he returns from injury), and Goga Bitadze. Jonathan Isaac surely will get some rotational burn as well.
Jase Richardson was the Magic’s Draft addition with the 25th pick in round one.
The Magic had the second best defensive rating last season but they finished 29th in effective field goal percentage. A little give on defense should be expected but Bane alone should really help them improve that low EFG.
We still do not LOVE the pairing of two low percentage deep shooters (Franz and Paolo), and that may have to be rectified before the Magic contend for a Eastern Conference title. If they ever decided to trade either guy, they could get a haul in return that might fit better.
Vegas projects: 51.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 56 wins.#2 Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers enter 2025–26 with continuity and confidence, returning nearly the same roster that powered last year’s 64–18 campaign. Cleveland’s top-end talent is as strong as any in the NBA. Evan Mobley (photo below), the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, ranked first among power forwards in Hoop Obsession’s efficiency metric. Donovan Mitchell topped all shooting guards, while Darius Garland, Mitchell, and Mobley each earned All-Star nods. Jarrett Allen, an All-Star in 2021–22, rounds out a "core-four" that already boasts elite production at multiple positions. De’Andre Hunter projects to complete the starting lineup, giving the Cavs a balanced and battle-tested main five.
The team’s offensive profile was dominant last season. Cleveland led the NBA in both scoring (121.9 PPG) and effective field-goal percentage under head coach Kenny Atkinson. Replicating that firepower will be the challenge, particularly with the departures of Ty Jerome, a quietly vital contributor, and Isaac Okoro.
Health will also be a storyline. Max Strus is expected to be a major rotation piece once he returns from foot surgery (fifth metatarsal), and his shooting and spacing will be vital for Cleveland’s offensive flow. Garland is still recovering from toe surgery but he is expected to be back to play his normal starting role once he is cleared.
If there’s a weakness, it lies in the second unit. Newly acquired Lonzo Ball provides defensive grit and play-making, but the rest of the group, likely Sam Merrill, Strus (when healthy), Dean Wade, and free-agent signing Larry Nance Jr., faces questions about consistency and durability. Jaylon Tyson and Nae’Qwan Tomlin are also candidates for rotation minutes, but their roles remain undefined.
With four top-12 players at their positions, three All-Stars in their prime, and Mobley ascending into super-stardom, Cleveland has the talent to contend for the East’s top seed once again. The only question is whether the bench can provide enough stability to support another deep playoff run.
Las Vegas projects: 56.5 wins
Hoop Obsession projects: 56 wins.#1 Oklahoma City Thunder
You have to go back to the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors for the last time we felt this strongly about a team being the best by a wide margin. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (photo below) did it all last season as the Thunder won the NBA Championship. Their regular season record was 68-14. We don’t see any reason a repeat won’t happen.
OKC signed Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams, and Chet Holmgren to contract extensions and the vibes seem immaculate. That trio is joined by Lu Dort and Isaiah Hartenstein as the main-five. None of their starters are older than the age of 27.
The second unit is comprised of Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Alex Caruso, Aaron Wiggins, and Jaylin Williams. By our metrics, and by the NBA’s defensive rating, the Thunder have the best defensive main-five, and the best defensive second-five. Their main-five offensive efficiency is second best.
Last season, OKC led the NBA in free throw percentage, least amount of turnovers per game, most steals, and best assist-to-turnover ratio. They were second in the NBA in blocked shots per game. They just do not have many weaknesses. Even their "third five" is nice. Nikola Topic was a top draft pick last season that was hurt and missed all the games. He figures to see the NBA court this season. Meanwhile, Thomas Sorber, the Thunder’s first round pick this year, will miss this entire season after undergoing surgery for a torn ACL. The 19 year-old was the 15th pick in the 2025 NBA Draft.
Brooks Barnhizer was added in the Draft with the 44th pick. The 23 year-old from Northwestern looked good in Summer League.
Las Vegas projects: 62.5 wins.
Hoop Obsession projects: 63 wins.
Preseason games begin October 2nd. Real games tip-off October 21st. Give us the Thunder to repeat as champs.
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